Magic Kingdom Crowd Calendar
Based on Predictive Modeling
Magic Kingdom Crowd Calendar
Below is the 2025 predictive crowd calendar for Magic Kingdom. The general idea is is that higher wait times equals a busier park. This calendar is a predictive model of future wait times developed based on past data collections and factors derived by the Thrill Data team. Use this information to help guide decisions on time periods when to visit the park. The number shown in each calendar day box is the predicted average wait time for that date. Click on any date to see the specific wait times for the most recent occurence of that date.
Keep in mind that lower wait times do not indicate an empty park. It means that wait times are lower than other points in the year, but they may still be significant.
Below is a Predictive crowd calendar based on training models. Click the A above for a past-data Average crowd calendar.
2025 Magic Kingdom Predictive Crowd Calendar
Lowest Lower
Average
Higher Highest
Calendar Version: 2025-03-13_08_23_AM / Model Type:
V
Like weather forecasts, there are different crowd calendar modeling techniques, and predictions are updated as new data becomes available.
Most updates are to account for upcoming park hours, the weather forecast, and the attraction refurbishment schedule.
Click any of the links below to see the Magic Kingdom crowd calendar results for a different or older model. Each model tracks its own accuracy and most models are identified by the time they were created.
Click the check mark in the compare column to compare the currently viewed model (2025-03-13_08_23_AM Type
V
) to the respective model.
Magic Kingdom Models
| Model ID | Model Type | Average Error | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|
|
A
|
N/A
|
||
|
C
|
2.9 minutes
|
||
|
D
|
2.8 minutes
|
||
|
B
|
2.6 minutes
|
||
|
C
|
2.9 minutes
|
||
|
B
|
2.8 minutes
|
||
|
V
|
2.8 minutes
|
||
|
D
|
3.0 minutes
|
||
|
B
|
2.9 minutes
|
||
|
D
|
2.9 minutes
|
||
|
C
|
2.9 minutes
|
||
|
V
|
2.8 minutes
|
||
|
B
|
2.5 minutes
|
||
|
B
|
2.6 minutes
|
||
|
B
|
2.5 minutes
|
||
|
V
|
2.5 minutes
|
||
|
V
|
2.5 minutes
|
||
|
C
|
2.7 minutes
|
||
|
C
|
2.6 minutes
|
||
|
C
|
2.4 minutes
|
||
|
D
|
2.8 minutes
|
||
|
D
|
2.8 minutes
|
The predicted wait times are expected to fall within +/- 2.7 minutes of the value shown on the calendar based on the model's training test data set. Larger differences can occur, particularly for dates farther in the future.
The current calendar error is +/- 3.8 minutes based on predictions compared to measured wait times.
The table below compares the predicted wait times with the actual measured wait times. It shows how accurate or not the model was each day.
| Date | Prediction | Actual | Delta | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2025-03-13
|
37 min
|
31 min
|
-6 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-14
|
35 min
|
30 min
|
-5 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-15
|
32 min
|
22 min
|
-10 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-16
|
28 min
|
21 min
|
-7 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-17
|
31 min
|
29 min
|
-2 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-18
|
30 min
|
35 min
|
5 min
|
Under-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-19
|
27 min
|
31 min
|
4 min
|
Under-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-20
|
32 min
|
32 min
|
0 min
|
Predicted
|
|
2025-03-21
|
31 min
|
30 min
|
-1 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-22
|
30 min
|
28 min
|
-2 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-23
|
27 min
|
27 min
|
0 min
|
Predicted
|
|
2025-03-24
|
28 min
|
32 min
|
4 min
|
Under-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-25
|
33 min
|
31 min
|
-2 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-26
|
32 min
|
29 min
|
-3 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
|
2025-03-27
|
37 min
|
31 min
|
-6 min
|
Over-Predicted
|
Note the current date actual data will flucuate until after 7 PM local time.
Magic Kingdom Accuracy Summary
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
|
Correct Predictions
|
2
|
|
Under-Predictions
|
3
|
|
Over-Predictions
|
10
|
|
Average Error
|
3.8 minutes
|
Calendar Version: 2025-03-13_08_23_AM / Model Type:
V
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
|
Average Daily Wait Time
|
|
|
Minimum Daily Wait Time
|
|
|
Maximum Daily Wait Time
|
|
|
Busiest Week
|
|
|
Least Busy Week
|
|
|
Number of Average Days
|
|
|
Number of Lower Wait Days
|
|
|
Number of Lowest Wait Days
|
|
|
Number of Higher Wait Days
|
|
|
Number of Highest Wait Days
|
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