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Home > Waits > Disney International > Tokyo DisneySea > Crowd Calendars

Tokyo DisneySea Crowd Calendar

Based on Predictive Modeling
Tokyo DisneySea Crowd Calendar

Below is the 2025 predictive crowd calendar for Tokyo DisneySea. The general idea is is that higher wait times equals a busier park. This calendar is a predictive model of future wait times developed based on past data collections and factors derived by the Thrill Data team. Use this information to help guide decisions on time periods when to visit the park. The number shown in each calendar day box is the predicted average wait time for that date. Click on any date to see the specific wait times for the most recent occurence of that date.

Keep in mind that lower wait times do not indicate an empty park. It means that wait times are lower than other points in the year, but they may still be significant.

Below is a Predictive crowd calendar based on training models. Click the A above for a past-data Average crowd calendar.

2025 Tokyo DisneySea Predictive Crowd Calendar
Lowest
Lower
Average
Higher
Highest

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY
Jan 01
41
Jan 02
55
Jan 03
56
Jan 04
47
Jan 05
46
Jan 06
44
Jan 07
48
Jan 08
41
Jan 09
44
Jan 10
49
Jan 11
32
Jan 12
39
Jan 13
31
Jan 14
29
Jan 15
35
Jan 16
38
Jan 17
35
Jan 18
38
Jan 19
39
Jan 20
40
Jan 21
32
Jan 22
44
Jan 23
41
Jan 24
43
Jan 25
44
Jan 26
47
Jan 27
44
Jan 28
40
Jan 29
39
Jan 30
34
Jan 31
40
Feb 01
43
Feb 02
34
Feb 03
39
Feb 04
35
Feb 05
33
Feb 06
41
Feb 07
42
Feb 08
34
Feb 09
46
Feb 10
48
Feb 11
35
Feb 12
51
Feb 13
47
Feb 14
28
Feb 15
47
Feb 16
41
Feb 17
55
Feb 18
50
Feb 19
47
Feb 20
50
Feb 21
47
Feb 22
48
Feb 23
44
Feb 24
42
Feb 25
46
Feb 26
55
Feb 27
54
Feb 28
35
Mar 01
46
Mar 02
43
Mar 03
34
Mar 04
41
Mar 05
38
Mar 06
51
Mar 07
52
Mar 08
38
Mar 09
43
Mar 10
43
Mar 11
51
Mar 12
47
Mar 13
54
Mar 14
51
Mar 15
52
Mar 16
41
Mar 17
39
Mar 18
55
Mar 19
55
Mar 20
41
Mar 21
52
Mar 22
53
Mar 23
44
Mar 24
42
Mar 25
42
Mar 26
43
Mar 27
41
Mar 28
37
Mar 29
37
Mar 30
53
Mar 31
39
Apr 01
45
Apr 02
49
Apr 03
35
Apr 04
47
Apr 05
40
Apr 06
34
Apr 07
23
Apr 08
30
Apr 09
26
Apr 10
31
Apr 11
34
Apr 12
31
Apr 13
28
Apr 14
43
Apr 15
36
Apr 16
43
Apr 17
42
Apr 18
34
Apr 19
25
Apr 20
42
Apr 21
41
Apr 22
28
Apr 23
30
Apr 24
23
Apr 25
26
Apr 26
27
Apr 27
21
Apr 28
29
Apr 29
26
Apr 30
25
May 01
23
May 02
31
May 03
45
May 04
43
May 05
44
May 06
34
May 07
25
May 08
24
May 09
23
May 10
43
May 11
36
May 12
28
May 13
24
May 14
31
May 15
33
May 16
28
May 17
35
May 18
32
May 19
28
May 20
27
May 21
32
May 22
38
May 23
37
May 24
37
May 25
41
May 26
42
May 27
29
May 28
28
May 29
30
May 30
31
May 31
26
Jun 01
30
Jun 02
28
Jun 03
27
Jun 04
34
Jun 05
39
Jun 06
24
Jun 07
24
Jun 08
21
Jun 09
23
Jun 10
29
Jun 11
28
Jun 12
26
Jun 13
24
Jun 14
28
Jun 15
27
Jun 16
25
Jun 17
27
Jun 18
23
Jun 19
31
Jun 20
27
Jun 21
25
Jun 22
27
Jun 23
25
Jun 24
28
Jun 25
30
Jun 26
29
Jun 27
26
Jun 28
23
Jun 29
25
Jun 30
27
Jul 01
26
Jul 02
23
Jul 03
24
Jul 04
24
Jul 05
25
Jul 06
24
Jul 07
29
Jul 08
27
Jul 09
26
Jul 10
26
Jul 11
25
Jul 12
25
Jul 13
26
Jul 14
26
Jul 15
27
Jul 16
34
Jul 17
31
Jul 18
27
Jul 19
26
Jul 20
22
Jul 21
28
Jul 22
26
Jul 23
24
Jul 24
25
Jul 25
26
Jul 26
28
Jul 27
28
Jul 28
27
Jul 29
25
Jul 30
25
Jul 31
27
Aug 01
32
Aug 02
28
Aug 03
31
Aug 04
30
Aug 05
26
Aug 06
28
Aug 07
31
Aug 08
33
Aug 09
34
Aug 10
42
Aug 11
35
Aug 12
36
Aug 13
27
Aug 14
36
Aug 15
32
Aug 16
28
Aug 17
32
Aug 18
30
Aug 19
27
Aug 20
28
Aug 21
29
Aug 22
31
Aug 23
30
Aug 24
30
Aug 25
30
Aug 26
31
Aug 27
26
Aug 28
31
Aug 29
27
Aug 30
30
Aug 31
27
Sep 01
25
Sep 02
22
Sep 03
20
Sep 04
25
Sep 05
26
Sep 06
31
Sep 07
27
Sep 08
25
Sep 09
26
Sep 10
30
Sep 11
30
Sep 12
30
Sep 13
30
Sep 14
29
Sep 15
34
Sep 16
31
Sep 17
40
Sep 18
40
Sep 19
31
Sep 20
27
Sep 21
29
Sep 22
32
Sep 23
39
Sep 24
33
Sep 25
36
Sep 26
35
Sep 27
30
Sep 28
33
Sep 29
30
Sep 30
37
Oct 01
27
Oct 02
31
Oct 03
32
Oct 04
30
Oct 05
27
Oct 06
33
Oct 07
42
Oct 08
48
Oct 09
36
Oct 10
50
Oct 11
41
Oct 12
38
Oct 13
41
Oct 14
37
Oct 15
50
Oct 16
42
Oct 17
40
Oct 18
28
Oct 19
41
Oct 20
41
Oct 21
46
Oct 22
45
Oct 23
46
Oct 24
38
Oct 25
26
Oct 26
27
Oct 27
31
Oct 28
44
Oct 29
37
Oct 30
33
Oct 31
26
Nov 01
44
Nov 02
46
Nov 03
52
Nov 04
52
Nov 05
51
Nov 06
42
Nov 07
38
Nov 08
39
Nov 09
45
Nov 10
40
Nov 11
46
Nov 12
48
Nov 13
47
Nov 14
41
Nov 15
46
Nov 16
52
Nov 17
42
Nov 18
51
Nov 19
50
Nov 20
43
Nov 21
46
Nov 22
40
Nov 23
54
Nov 24
49
Nov 25
46
Nov 26
45
Nov 27
47
Nov 28
47
Nov 29
49
Nov 30
50
Dec 01
41
Dec 02
46
Dec 03
45
Dec 04
42
Dec 05
42
Dec 06
45
Dec 07
53
Dec 08
44
Dec 09
47
Dec 10
44
Dec 11
41
Dec 12
46
Dec 13
46
Dec 14
53
Dec 15
50
Dec 16
45
Dec 17
46
Dec 18
47
Dec 19
37
Dec 20
35
Dec 21
39
Dec 22
38
Dec 23
40
Dec 24
38
Dec 25
45
Dec 26
41
Dec 27
45
Dec 28
46
Dec 29
56
Dec 30
55
Dec 31
49
Calendar Version: 2025-03-07_09_21_PM / Model Type: V
Like weather forecasts, there are different crowd calendar modeling techniques, and predictions are updated as new data becomes available. Most updates are to account for upcoming park hours, the weather forecast, and the attraction refurbishment schedule. Click any of the links below to see the Tokyo DisneySea crowd calendar results for a different or older model. Each model tracks its own accuracy and most models are identified by the time they were created. Click the check mark in the compare column to compare the currently viewed model (2025-03-07_09_21_PM Type V ) to the respective model.
Tokyo DisneySea Models
Model ID Model Type Average Error Compare
A
N/A
C
4.6 minutes
D
4.6 minutes
B
4.5 minutes
Training Error
4.4
Measured Error
11.1
The predicted wait times are expected to fall within +/- 4.4 minutes of the value shown on the calendar based on the model's training test data set. Larger differences can occur, particularly for dates farther in the future. The current calendar error is +/- 11.1 minutes based on predictions compared to measured wait times.
The table below compares the predicted wait times with the actual measured wait times. It shows how accurate or not the model was each day.
Date Prediction Actual Delta Comment
2025-03-08
38 min
38 min
0 min
Predicted
2025-03-09
43 min
40 min
-3 min
Over-Predicted
2025-03-10
43 min
61 min
18 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-11
51 min
55 min
4 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-12
47 min
54 min
7 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-13
54 min
60 min
6 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-14
51 min
62 min
11 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-15
52 min
42 min
-10 min
Over-Predicted
2025-03-16
41 min
29 min
-12 min
Over-Predicted
2025-03-17
39 min
64 min
25 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-18
55 min
61 min
6 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-19
55 min
59 min
4 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-20
41 min
40 min
-1 min
Over-Predicted
2025-03-21
52 min
65 min
13 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-22
53 min
49 min
-4 min
Over-Predicted
2025-03-23
44 min
41 min
-3 min
Over-Predicted
2025-03-24
42 min
50 min
8 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-25
42 min
52 min
10 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-26
43 min
60 min
17 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-27
41 min
64 min
23 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-28
37 min
57 min
20 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-29
37 min
40 min
3 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-30
53 min
57 min
4 min
Under-Predicted
2025-03-31
39 min
64 min
25 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-01
45 min
29 min
-16 min
Over-Predicted
2025-04-02
49 min
37 min
-12 min
Over-Predicted
2025-04-03
35 min
39 min
4 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-04
47 min
61 min
14 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-05
40 min
60 min
20 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-06
34 min
50 min
16 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-07
23 min
43 min
20 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-08
30 min
53 min
23 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-09
26 min
52 min
26 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-10
31 min
51 min
20 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-11
34 min
35 min
1 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-12
31 min
57 min
26 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-13
28 min
27 min
-1 min
Over-Predicted
2025-04-14
43 min
34 min
-9 min
Over-Predicted
2025-04-15
36 min
42 min
6 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-16
43 min
49 min
6 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-17
42 min
46 min
4 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-18
34 min
39 min
5 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-19
25 min
48 min
23 min
Under-Predicted
2025-04-20
42 min
41 min
-1 min
Over-Predicted
Note the current date actual data will flucuate until after 7 PM local time.
Tokyo DisneySea Accuracy Summary
Statistic Value
Correct Predictions
1
Under-Predictions
32
Over-Predictions
11
Average Error
11.1 minutes
Calendar Version: 2025-03-07_09_21_PM / Model Type: V
Statistic Value
Average Daily Wait Time
22 minutes
Minimum Daily Wait Time
20 minutes
Maximum Daily Wait Time
56 minutes
Busiest Week
2025-12-29
Least Busy Week
2025-06-30
Number of Average Days
124
Number of Lower Wait Days
57
Number of Lowest Wait Days
1
Number of Higher Wait Days
65
Number of Highest Wait Days
8
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